PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

WLLDW
6–1Full-time recap

Metz

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleMetz
Shots23 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target12 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners7 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jessy Deminguet · Metz · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHamza Igamane · Lille · 8′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMarius Broholm · Lille · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFélix Correia · Lille · 34′ · 0.05 xG · goalHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalChancel Mbemba · Lille · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIbou Sane · Metz · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Stambouli · Metz · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChancel Mbemba · Lille · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 16′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarius Broholm · Lille · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetBenjamin André · Lille · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 56′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Bokele Mputu · Metz · 62′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRomain Perraud · Lille · 64′ · 0.12 xG · goalAlpha Touré · Metz · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 39′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 10′ · 0.15 xG · on targetSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 72′ · 0.18 xG · on targetFélix Correia · Lille · 53′ · 0.21 xG · goalHamza Igamane · Lille · 24′ · 0.27 xG · goalHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 3′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 82′ · 0.52 xG · goalCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 69′ · 0.70 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 23 shots, 12 on target, 2.99 xG. Metz: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Hamza Igamane · Lille · 24′Félix Correia · Lille · 34′Félix Correia · Lille · 53′Romain Perraud · Lille · 64′Benjamin André · Lille · 82′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 90′Ibou Sane · Metz · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 2.99 xG · Metz 1.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.1 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Metz7.44 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleMetzBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match7.44 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.44 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz have a visible away split

moderate

Metz's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season7.44 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match7.44 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 1 · 4 too close

2.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.67 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/92.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/97.44 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/915.8 shots/match
5.44 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.11 shots/match
3.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/96.78 shots/match
56.9%Possessionseason · 9/948.8%
6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/94.22 corners/match
4.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.56 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.33 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/911%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/944%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille75
Metz47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille92.6
Metz3.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille69.4
Metz4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille80.6
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille75
Metz12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille91.7
Metz30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille88.9
Metz13.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.2 shots/match▲Shots5/56.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/550%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.67 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.1 shots/match▲Shots9/97.44 shots/match
5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.11 shots/match
56.9%Possession9/948.8%
6.33 corners/matchCorners9/94.22 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/91.33 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.67 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.1 shots/match▲Shots9/97.44 shots/match
5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.11 shots/match
56.9%Possession9/948.8%
6.33 corners/matchCorners9/94.22 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/91.33 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/54.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
54.8%Possession5/551%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.95 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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