PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreStade Brestois 29
Shots13 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners5 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ayumu Seko · Le Havre · 6′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGodson Kyeremeh · Le Havre · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetThomas Delaine · Le Havre · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGautier Lloris · Le Havre · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 26′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThomas Delaine · Le Havre · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 73′ · 0.07 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 26′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGodson Kyeremeh · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 78′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 89′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 62′ · 0.52 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.96 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Arouna Sangante · Le Havre · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 0.96 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Le Havre. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Le Havre.

3.07 days▲Rest daysLe Havre · Stade Brestois 294.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLe HavreStade Brestois 29Baseline
Rest days3.07 days4.12 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 4 · 4 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲12.5 shots/match
9.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1013.4 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲3.8 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/104.7 shots/match
44.6%Possessionseason · 10/1043.8%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/104.1 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/105.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.7 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre41.7
Stade Brestois 2919.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre25
Stade Brestois 2939.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre57.4
Stade Brestois 2926.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre63.9
Stade Brestois 2980.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre63.9
Stade Brestois 2930.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre22.2
Stade Brestois 2930.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre41
Stade Brestois 2936.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/59.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/544.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match
44.6%Possession10/1043.8%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match
44.6%Possession10/1043.8%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
49.4%Possession5/546.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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