PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Lyon

WLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Lyon
Shots13 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners12 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Corentin Tolisso · Lyon · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 27′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSoumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 26′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 27′ · 0.32 xG · on targetRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.32 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 17′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.50 xG. Lyon: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG · Lyon 0.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lyon. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lyon.

4.07 days▲Rest daysStade Brestois 29 · Lyon3.99 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricStade Brestois 29LyonBaseline
Rest days4.07 days3.99 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 8 · 5 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.45 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1112 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲11.9 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.36 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲3.09 shots/match
44.4%Possessionseason · 11/1155%
4.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/116.18 corners/match
5.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲5 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/111.91 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1114.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲55%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2925
Lyon69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2940.8
Lyon48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2930.5
Lyon75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Lyon8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2941.6
Lyon63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2958.3
Lyon86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2952.1
Lyon70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
46%Possession5/556.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
44.2%Possession10/1056%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.45 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots11/1112 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.36 shots/match
44.4%Possession11/1155%
4.82 corners/matchCorners11/116.18 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards11/111.91 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1114.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots6/610.7 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.83 shots/match
42.7%Possession6/651.7%
6 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
1.17 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls6/615 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.99 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Lyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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