PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

DDDLW
3–5Full-time recap

Monaco

WLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesMonaco
Shots18 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲7 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBahmed Deuff · Nantes · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLouis Leroux · Nantes · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabien Centonze · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 38′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKelvin Amian · Nantes · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBahmed Deuff · Nantes · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPape Cabral · Monaco · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 18′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 48′ · 0.19 xG · on targetYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 45′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 45′ · 0.20 xG · goalAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 75′ · 0.20 xG · goalMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 55′ · 0.22 xG · goalBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 19′ · 0.27 xG · goalMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 80′ · 0.30 xG · goalMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 6′ · 0.33 xG · goalKrépin Diatta · Monaco · 27′ · 0.46 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 14′ · 0.48 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 41′ · 0.54 xG · goalThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 17′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 90′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.67 xG. Monaco: 19 shots, 9 on target, 4.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Bahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 19′Bahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 45′Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 80′Mamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 6′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 41′Maghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 55′Aleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 75′Aleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 1.67 xG · Monaco 4.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Monaco12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesMonacoBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against16.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Monaco have a visible away split

moderate

Monaco's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 7 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲12.9 shots/match
16.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲12.8 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.3 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.4 shots/match
42.7%Possessionseason · 10/1056%
3.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/104.4 corners/match
6.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲5.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 10/102.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1013.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1010%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9
Monaco75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes12
Monaco71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes24.1
Monaco54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes41.7
Monaco13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes23.6
Monaco80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes8.3
Monaco47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes13.9
Monaco59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
44%Possession5/556.6%
3 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
42.7%Possession10/1056%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
42.7%Possession10/1056%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
40%Possession5/556%
3 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/54.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.06 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 30 Oct 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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