PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

LDDWW
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoParis FC
Shots10 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKrépin Diatta · Monaco · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · Monaco · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKrépin Diatta · Monaco · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 64′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 14′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Paris FC · 76′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 31′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 58′ · 0.35 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.81 xG. Paris FC: 9 shots, 1 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Moses Simon · Paris FC · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 0.81 xG · Paris FC 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Monaco, Paris FC. A second useful context is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Monaco, Paris FC.

2.91 days▲Rest daysMonaco · Paris FC2.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMonacoParis FCBaseline
Rest days2.91 days2.91 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

weak

Monaco's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 5 · 6 too close

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.64 goals/match
1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1112.7 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲11.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/114.09 shots/match
3.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/113.82 shots/match
55.9%Possessionseason · 11/1155.5%
4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.64 corners/match
4.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.55 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲2 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲18%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco80.6
Paris FC69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco58.4
Paris FC58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco55.6
Paris FC43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco8.3
Paris FC13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco83.3
Paris FC27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco36.1
Paris FC52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco50
Paris FC45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
57%Possession5/556.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots10/1012.3 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
54.1%Possession10/1054.2%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
3.1 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.64 goals/match
1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots11/1112.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target11/114.09 shots/match
55.9%Possession11/1155.5%
4.27 corners/matchCorners11/114.64 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCards11/112 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots6/610.5 shots/match
4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match
55.8%Possession6/653.2%
4.33 corners/matchCorners6/63.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.67 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/611 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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