PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Nice

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainNice
Shots28 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession77%23%
Corners11 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

João Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 14′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 89′ · 0.05 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 46′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 82′ · 0.08 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 76′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAbdulay Juma Bah · Nice · 32′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 32′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.17 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.18 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.31 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 28 shots, 8 on target, 1.82 xG. Nice: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.82 xG · Nice 0.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Nice's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.5 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Nice11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainNiceBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against8.45 shots/match17.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Paris Saint Germain, Nice.

2.92 days▲Rest daysParis Saint Germain · Nice2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricParis Saint GermainNiceBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 0 · 4 too close

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.45 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.45 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1111.1 shots/match
8.45 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1117.2 shots/match
6.64 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.91 shots/match
2.64 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/115.55 shots/match
72.4%Possessionseason · 11/1145.3%
6.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.73 corners/match
2.45 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/116.55 corners/match
1.18 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/112.27 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
55%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1118%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1182%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Nice47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain88
Nice38
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Nice25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain36.1
Nice52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain2.8
Nice47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain91.7
Nice58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain70.9
Nice41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.8 shots/match▲Shots5/57 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
72.6%Possession5/532.4%
7 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.9 shots/match
6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
72.5%Possession10/1044.1%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.45 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1111.1 shots/match
6.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.91 shots/match
72.4%Possession11/1145.3%
6.64 corners/matchCorners11/114.73 corners/match
1.18 cards/matchCards11/112.27 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
73.2%Possession5/544%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainNice
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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