PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LDDWW
2–0Full-time recap

Lille

LLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceLille
Shots8 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners2 corners/match13 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nathan Ngoy · Lille · 26′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAïssa Mandi · Lille · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Gouveia · Nice · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 26′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 6′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIsak Jansson · Nice · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 77′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKojo Peprah Oppong · Nice · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFélix Correia · Lille · 11′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 87′ · 0.57 xG · goalSofiane Diop · Nice · 29′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.75 xG. Lille: 21 shots, 4 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sofiane Diop · Nice · 29′Isak Jansson · Nice · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.75 xG · Lille 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nice, Lille. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Lille17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceLilleBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match17.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against16.1 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nice, Lille.

3.07 days▲Rest daysNice · Lille3.17 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNiceLilleBaseline
Rest days3.07 days3.17 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 7 · 6 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲17.5 shots/match
16.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲10.2 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲5.3 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.6 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 10/1058%
5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/107 corners/match
6.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/102.5 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1013.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1020%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice47.2
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice43.5
Lille88
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice25.9
Lille74.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice58.3
Lille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice57
Lille69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice63.9
Lille97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice50.7
Lille87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲18 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
36.6%Possession5/557%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.5 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
47.5%Possession10/1058%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/107 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.5 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
47.5%Possession10/1058%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/107 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲2.4 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots6/5▲18.2 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲5.8 shots/match
46.3%Possession6/561.2%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/58.4 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/52.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls6/513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Oct 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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