PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

LLDLL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAuxerreMarseille
Shots9 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Amir Murillo · Marseille · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLasso Coulibaly · Auxerre · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedUlisses Garcia · Marseille · 55′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFredrik Oppegård · Auxerre · 83′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Marseille · 30′ · 0.16 xG · goalBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 48′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 76′ · 0.26 xG · on targetIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 58′ · 0.66 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Auxerre: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.18 xG. Marseille: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Angel Gomes · Marseille · 30′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 1.18 xG · Marseille 0.50 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Auxerre, Marseille. A second useful context is: Auxerre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Auxerre, Marseille.

3 days▲Rest daysAuxerre · Marseille3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAuxerreMarseilleBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Auxerre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Auxerre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsAuxerre · Marseille13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAuxerreMarseilleBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match9.45 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.9%▲PossessionAuxerre · Marseille59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAuxerreMarseilleBaseline
Possession44.9%59.5%46.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 9 · 5 too close

0.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2.27 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲13.9 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲9.45 shots/match
3.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.45 shots/match
4.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲3.73 shots/match
44.9%Possessionseason · 11/1159.5%
4.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.27 corners/match
4.45 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲3.36 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/112.64 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲36%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre41.7
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre13.9
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre37
Marseille79.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre25
Marseille36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre80.6
Marseille66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre63.9
Marseille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre45.8
Marseille77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/563%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.8 shots/match
45%Possession10/1058.2%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
0.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.27 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.9 shots/match
3.18 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.45 shots/match
44.9%Possession11/1159.5%
4.82 corners/matchCorners11/115.27 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCards11/112.64 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲14.8 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.5 shots/match
45.7%Possession6/659.3%
5 corners/matchCorners6/65.83 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards6/63 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAuxerreMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match