PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Roazhon Park

Stade Rennais 1–2 Nice · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

Nice

WLDDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nice won 1–2.

Shots
198
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.740.73
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nice beat Rennes 2–1. Recorded in this match (Rennes – Nice): shots 19–8, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.74–0.73, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsRennes · Nice12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesNiceBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots8 shotsStade Rennais 19 shots, Nice 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsStade Rennais 7 shots, Nice 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.74 xG0.73 xGStade Rennais 1.74 xG, Nice 0.73 xG
  • Possession58%42%Stade Rennais 58%, Nice 42%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersStade Rennais 7 corners, Nice 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls22 foulsStade Rennais 13 fouls, Nice 22 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsStade Rennais 5 cards, Nice 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jérémie Boga · Nice · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetValentin Rongier · Rennes · 27′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 38′ · 0.02 xG · goalLudovic Blas · Rennes · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 74′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 45′ · 0.06 xG · goalBreel Embolo · Rennes · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 50′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 89′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 75′ · 0.17 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 89′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 22′ · 0.37 xG · on targetAbdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 67′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.77 xG. Nice: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 67′Sofiane Diop · Nice · 38′Jonathan Clauss · Nice · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.77 xG · Nice 0.73 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Stade Rennais
0Draws
3Nice
Stade Rennais — Nice · Ligue 12–0
Nice — Stade Rennais · Ligue 13–2
Stade Rennais — Nice · Ligue 12–0
Nice — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–0
Nice — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Rennais favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Rennais9 matchesNice9 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.21 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots9/912.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/94.11 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession9/949.2%
4.89 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.44 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/92.33 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/913.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade RennaisNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headStade Rennais — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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