PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WDDDD
1–2Full-time recap

Nice

WLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesNice
Shots19 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jérémie Boga · Nice · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetValentin Rongier · Rennes · 27′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 38′ · 0.02 xG · goalLudovic Blas · Rennes · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 74′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 45′ · 0.06 xG · goalBreel Embolo · Rennes · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 50′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 89′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 75′ · 0.17 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 89′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 22′ · 0.37 xG · on targetAbdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 67′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.77 xG. Nice: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 67′Sofiane Diop · Nice · 38′Jonathan Clauss · Nice · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.77 xG · Nice 0.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Nice12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesNiceBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 2 · 5 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/912.1 shots/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/915.6 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/94.11 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.44 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 9/949.2%
4.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/95.44 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.33 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/92.33 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/913.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/911%
78%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes63.9
Nice55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes59.3
Nice45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes41.7
Nice19.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes69.4
Nice52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes51.4
Nice59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes52.8
Nice69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes59
Nice54.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
58.2%Possession5/542.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots9/912.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.11 shots/match
53.2%Possession9/949.2%
4.89 corners/matchCorners9/95.44 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/92.33 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/913.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots9/912.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.11 shots/match
53.2%Possession9/949.2%
4.89 corners/matchCorners9/95.44 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/92.33 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/913.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/411.3 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/43 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/449.3%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/45.5 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/43.25 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/414.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.05 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesNice
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match