PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTCFull time

Nottingham Forest

1–1Full-time recap

Bournemouth

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest37.5
Bournemouth47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest45
Bournemouth78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest39.2
Bournemouth40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest82.5
Bournemouth92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest38.8
Bournemouth85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest62.5
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest56.2
Bournemouth80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricNottingham ForestBournemouth
Goals scored2.4 goals/match5 obs.1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match5 obs.0.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.64 xG/match5 obs.1.51 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.8 shots/match5 obs.14 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5 shots/match5 obs.4.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession42.6%5 obs.49.8%5 obs.
Corners4.2 corners/match5 obs.6.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls11.4 fouls/match5 obs.12.2 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricNottingham ForestBournemouth
Goals scored2.2 goals/match10 obs.1.4 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match10 obs.0.8 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.4 xG/match9 obs.1.8 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.1 shots/match10 obs.14 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.5 shots/match10 obs.3.9 shots/match10 obs.
Possession42.4%10 obs.50.9%10 obs.
Corners4.1 corners/match10 obs.5.3 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.2.33 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls10.5 fouls/match10 obs.11.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricNottingham ForestBournemouth
Goals scored1.26 goals/match38 obs.1.53 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.34 goals/match38 obs.1.42 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.4 xG/match9 obs.1.8 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.5 shots/match38 obs.13.8 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.08 shots/match38 obs.4.66 shots/match38 obs.
Possession46.8%38 obs.50.2%38 obs.
Corners5.21 corners/match38 obs.5.58 corners/match38 obs.
Cards1.55 cards/match29 obs.2.42 cards/match31 obs.
Fouls10.8 fouls/match38 obs.12.1 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricNottingham ForestBournemouth
Goals scored1.05 goals/match19 obs.1.53 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.21 goals/match19 obs.1.79 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.19 xG/match5 obs.1.78 xG/match5 obs.
Shots14.9 shots/match19 obs.13.1 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target3.95 shots/match19 obs.4.79 shots/match19 obs.
Possession49%19 obs.47.8%19 obs.
Corners6 corners/match19 obs.5.16 corners/match19 obs.
Cards1.29 cards/match14 obs.2.73 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls10.6 fouls/match19 obs.12.5 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.26 goals/match40th1.53 goals/match75th1.33 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.34 goals/match43th1.42 goals/match68th1.36 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.4 xG/match48th1.8 xG/match88th1.4 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.39 xG/match43th1.48 xG/match73th1.41 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason12.5 shots/match43th13.8 shots/match78th12.6 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason13.3 shots/match73th12.6 shots/match58th12.4 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.08 shots/match53th4.66 shots/match83th4.03 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.29 shots/match68th4.26 shots/match55th4.26 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason46.8%38th50.2%48th50.2%38 / 38
Cornersseason5.21 corners/match63th5.58 corners/match73th4.91 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.82 corners/match33th5.26 corners/match73th4.99 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason1.55 cards/match10th2.42 cards/match83th1.91 cards/match29 / 31
Foulsseason10.8 fouls/match68th12.1 fouls/match88th10.6 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason24%43th29%78th24%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason63%10th82%73th74%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.15 days—4.85 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsNottingham ForestBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v3