PitchMath
Premier League · 2025City Ground
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth drew 1–1.

Shots
1517
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.871
Possession
45%55%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots17 shotsNottingham Forest 15 shots, Bournemouth 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsNottingham Forest 5 shots, Bournemouth 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.87 xG1 xGNottingham Forest 1.87 xG, Bournemouth 1 xG
  • Possession45%55%Nottingham Forest 45%, Bournemouth 55%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersNottingham Forest 6 corners, Bournemouth 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls7 foulsNottingham Forest 11 fouls, Bournemouth 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardNottingham Forest 1 card, Bournemouth 1 card

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Bournemouth): shots 15–17, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.87–1, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nottingham Forest
2Draws
3Bournemouth
Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0
Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Premier League5–0
Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Premier League1–1
Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1
Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Premier League2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest38 matchesBournemouth38 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored38/38▲ 1.53 goals/match
1.34 goals/match ▲Goals allowed38/381.42 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.8 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots38/38▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target38/38▲ 4.66 shots/match
46.8%Possession38/38● 50.2%
5.21 corners/matchCorners38/38● 5.58 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards29/312.42 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls38/3812.1 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest37.5
Bournemouth47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest45.0
Bournemouth78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest39.2
Bournemouth40.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest82.5
Bournemouth92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest38.8
Bournemouth85.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest62.5
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest56.2
Bournemouth80.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
7.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.85 days

Nottingham Forest / Bournemouth

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestBournemouth
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Bournemouth
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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