PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedNottingham Forest
Shots29 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals4.19 xG/match▲1.75 xG/match
Possession49%51%
Corners7 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Nottingham Forest12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Manchester United
1Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Manchester United · Premier League2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 5 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 37/371.27 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/371.35 goals/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.34 xG/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.44 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 37/3712.4 shots/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 37/3713.2 shots/match
5.65 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/374.05 shots/match
3.76 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 37/374.3 shots/match
51.9%Possessionseason · 37/3746.8%
4.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/375.19 corners/match
4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/374.86 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCardsseason · 31/29▲1.55 cards/match
9.78 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3710.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲24%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3762%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United57.5
Nottingham Forest37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United94.2
Nottingham Forest45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United75
Nottingham Forest38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5
Nottingham Forest82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United15
Nottingham Forest38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United35
Nottingham Forest57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United59.4
Nottingham Forest56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.46 xG/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/544%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.34 xG/match
15.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.9 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
48.8%Possession10/1042.5%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/2—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

37 / 37 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored37/371.27 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed37/371.35 goals/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.34 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shots37/3712.4 shots/match
5.65 shots/match▲Shots on target37/374.05 shots/match
51.9%Possession37/3746.8%
4.81 corners/matchCorners37/375.19 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards31/291.55 cards/match
9.78 fouls/matchFouls37/3710.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
2.05 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.47 goals/match
1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.47 goals/match
1.98 xG/match▲Expected goals5/41.65 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.1 shots/match
6.84 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.21 shots/match
51.4%Possession19/1944.5%
5.26 corners/matchCorners19/194.42 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards15/151.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.94 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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