Premier League · 2025Sun, 10 May 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WDWWW

1–1Full-time recap

Newcastle

LLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Newcastle
Shots	17 shots/match▲	16 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.19 xG/match	1.55 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	2 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.25 goals/match	1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

0Draws

1Newcastle

5 Oct 2025Newcastle — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 5 · 5 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 36/36▲1.39 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 36/361.44 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.56 xG/match

1.04 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.82 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/3613 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/36▲12 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 36/36▲4.61 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/364.28 shots/match

46.7%Possessionseason · 36/3652.4%

5.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 36/365.92 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/365 corners/match

1.55 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/291.86 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/369.97 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3622%

61%Scoring frequencyseason · 36/36▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest32.5

Newcastle67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest42.5

Newcastle65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest48.3

Newcastle38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest82.5

Newcastle52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest41.2

Newcastle30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Newcastle87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest56.2

Newcastle61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.65 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

42%Possession5/550.6%

4 corners/matchCorners5/51.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.56 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.4 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

42.1%Possession10/1050.1%

4 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

36 / 36 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored36/36▲1.39 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed36/361.44 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.56 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots36/3613 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on target36/36▲4.61 shots/match

46.7%Possession36/3652.4%

5.17 corners/matchCorners36/365.92 corners/match

1.55 cards/matchCards29/291.86 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls36/369.97 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

18 / 18 matches

1.06 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.94 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.28 goals/match

1.03 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.26 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.8 shots/match

3.89 shots/matchShots on target18/183.83 shots/match

49.2%Possession18/1853.1%

6 corners/matchCorners18/185.22 corners/match

1.29 cards/matchCards14/142 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/188.94 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match