PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Etihad Stadium
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 1–2.

Shots
1612
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.251.58
Possession
52%48%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots12 shotsManchester City 16 shots, Aston Villa 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsManchester City 3 shots, Aston Villa 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.25 xG1.58 xGManchester City 1.25 xG, Aston Villa 1.58 xG
  • Possession52%48%Manchester City 52%, Aston Villa 48%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersManchester City 9 corners, Aston Villa 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls4 foulsManchester City 8 fouls, Aston Villa 4 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsManchester City 1 card, Aston Villa 0 cards

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Aston Villa): shots 16–12, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.25–1.58, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester City · Aston Villa12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityAston VillaBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against9.71 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Manchester City
0Draws
3Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1
Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League2–1
Manchester City — Aston Villa · Premier League4–1
Aston Villa — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City38 matchesAston Villa38 matches
2.03 goals/match ▲Goals scored38/381.47 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed38/381.29 goals/match
1.91 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.33 xG/match
15.6 shots/match ▲Shots38/3812.6 shots/match
5.37 shots/match ▲Shots on target38/384.45 shots/match
60.5% ●Possession38/3853.5%
6.42 corners/match ●Corners38/385.18 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards29/291.62 cards/match
9.66 fouls/matchFouls38/389.74 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5
Aston Villa72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City95.0
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Aston Villa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City72.5
Aston Villa32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City22.5
Aston Villa13.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5
Aston Villa57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City71.9
Aston Villa46.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 match

Manchester City / Aston Villa

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headManchester City — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa — Premier League 2025/26 Match Stats | PitchMath