Premier League · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTCFull time

Manchester City

1–2Full-time recap

Aston Villa

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.47 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Shots	15.6 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	9.71 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City95

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City72.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City22.5

Aston Villa13.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Aston Villa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City71.9

Aston Villa46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa
Goals scored	2.2 goals/match5 obs.	1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed	1.2 goals/match5 obs.	1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals	1.77 xG/match5 obs.	1.17 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	18 shots/match5 obs.	11.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target	5.2 shots/match5 obs.	4.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession	62.6%5 obs.	52.6%5 obs.
Corners	8.6 corners/match5 obs.	5.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards	—0 obs.	—0 obs.
Fouls	7.6 fouls/match5 obs.	9.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa
Goals scored	2 goals/match10 obs.	1.8 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed	1 goals/match10 obs.	1.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals	1.91 xG/match9 obs.	1.33 xG/match9 obs.
Shots	19.6 shots/match10 obs.	12.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target	6 shots/match10 obs.	4.7 shots/match10 obs.
Possession	64.3%10 obs.	52.1%10 obs.
Corners	9.5 corners/match10 obs.	4.6 corners/match10 obs.
Cards	—1 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	8.4 fouls/match10 obs.	8.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa
Goals scored	2.03 goals/match38 obs.	1.47 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed	0.92 goals/match38 obs.	1.29 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals	1.91 xG/match9 obs.	1.33 xG/match9 obs.
Shots	15.6 shots/match38 obs.	12.6 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target	5.37 shots/match38 obs.	4.45 shots/match38 obs.
Possession	60.5%38 obs.	53.5%38 obs.
Corners	6.42 corners/match38 obs.	5.18 corners/match38 obs.
Cards	1.86 cards/match29 obs.	1.62 cards/match29 obs.
Fouls	9.66 fouls/match38 obs.	9.74 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

Metric	Manchester City	Aston Villa
Goals scored	2.37 goals/match19 obs.	1.26 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed	0.74 goals/match19 obs.	1.42 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals	1.8 xG/match4 obs.	1.13 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	16.4 shots/match19 obs.	11.6 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target	6.11 shots/match19 obs.	4.11 shots/match19 obs.
Possession	59.9%19 obs.	53.9%19 obs.
Corners	7.11 corners/match19 obs.	4.84 corners/match19 obs.
Cards	1.47 cards/match15 obs.	1.86 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls	9.84 fouls/match19 obs.	9.84 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Goals scoredseason	2.03 goals/match98th	1.47 goals/match68th	1.33 goals/match	38 / 38
Goals allowedseason	0.92 goals/match8th	1.29 goals/match23th	1.36 goals/match	38 / 38
Expected goalsseason	1.91 xG/match98th	1.33 xG/match38th	1.4 xG/match	9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason	1.23 xG/match23th	1.25 xG/match28th	1.41 xG/match	9 / 9
Shotsseason	15.6 shots/match95th	12.6 shots/match58th	12.6 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots allowedseason	9.71 shots/match8th	12.8 shots/match63th	12.4 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on targetseason	5.37 shots/match93th	4.45 shots/match63th	4.03 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason	3.34 shots/match8th	4.37 shots/match73th	4.26 shots/match	38 / 38
Possessionseason	60.5%98th	53.5%73th	50.2%	38 / 38
Cornersseason	6.42 corners/match98th	5.18 corners/match58th	4.91 corners/match	38 / 38
Corners allowedseason	3.82 corners/match8th	4.92 corners/match45th	4.99 corners/match	38 / 38
Cardsseason	1.86 cards/match43th	1.62 cards/match18th	1.91 cards/match	29 / 29
Foulsseason	9.66 fouls/match3th	9.74 fouls/match10th	10.6 fouls/match	38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason	42%93th	24%43th	24%	38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason	89%88th	74%50th	74%	38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures	4.85 days—	8.83 days—	—	1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures	2 matches—	1 matches—	—	1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.