Premier League · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap

Newcastle

WLLWW

1–2Full-time recap

Sunderland

LLDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle	Sunderland
Shots	16 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.27 xG/match	2.45 xG/match▲
Possession	59%	41%
Corners	9 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle · Sunderland9.87 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle	Sunderland	Baseline
Shots	13.2 shots/match	9.87 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	11.9 shots/match	14.7 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.7%▲PossessionNewcastle · Sunderland43.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle	Sunderland	Baseline
Possession	52.7%	43.6%	50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle

0Draws

1Sunderland

14 Dec 2025Sunderland — Newcastle · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 2 · 6 too close

1.42 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311.03 goals/match

1.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.16 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/319.87 shots/match

11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3114.7 shots/match

4.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/313.29 shots/match

4.26 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/314.32 shots/match

52.7%Possessionseason · 31/3143.6%

6.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/313.58 corners/match

5.03 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/315.19 corners/match

1.86 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.07 cards/match

9.84 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3110.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲29%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3165%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle62.5

Sunderland22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle69.2

Sunderland12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle41.7

Sunderland40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle57.5

Sunderland22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle30

Sunderland52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5

Sunderland10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle65

Sunderland18.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

49.6%Possession5/541.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

4 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match

52.3%Possession10/1045.7%

6.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

2.75 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.42 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311.03 goals/match

1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.16 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots31/319.87 shots/match

4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target31/313.29 shots/match

52.7%Possession31/3143.6%

6.58 corners/matchCorners31/313.58 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards29/292.07 cards/match

9.84 fouls/matchFouls31/3110.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.81 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.63 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.38 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots16/168.75 shots/match

5.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.06 shots/match

52.8%Possession16/1642.9%

7.19 corners/matchCorners16/163.38 corners/match

1.73 cards/matchCards15/152.07 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.88 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4