UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 17:45 UTCFull timeSpotify Camp NouFull-time recap

Barcelona

LWWWD

7–2Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Barcelona	Newcastle United
Shots	18 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	13 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	4.29 xG/match▲	1.52 xG/match
Possession	63%	37%
Corners	6 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Barcelona: 18 shots, 13 on target, 4.39 xG. Newcastle United: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 4.39 xG · Newcastle United 1.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Barcelona's recent record differs from the season

weak

Barcelona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	3 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Newcastle United14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Newcastle United	Baseline
Shots	16.7 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	10.3 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.2%▲PossessionBarcelona · Newcastle United49.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Newcastle United	Baseline
Possession	63.2%	49.1%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Barcelona

2Draws

0Newcastle United

10 Mar 2026Newcastle — Barcelona · UEFA Champions League1–1

10 Mar 2026Newcastle United — Barcelona · UEFA Champions League1–1

18 Sept 2025Newcastle — Barcelona · UEFA Champions League1–2

18 Sept 2025Newcastle United — Barcelona · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 4 · 4 too close

3 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/122.42 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/12▲1.5 goals/match

2 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/12▲2.21 xG/match

1.39 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/121.4 xG/match

16.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1214.1 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1214.1 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/126.58 shots/match

4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/125.25 shots/match

63.2%Possessionseason · 10/1249.1%

4.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/125.5 corners/match

3.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/126.17 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/129.67 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/12▲33%

90%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/12▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona96.4

Newcastle United41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona89.6

Newcastle United76.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona64.1

Newcastle United43.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona44

Newcastle United56

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona20.2

Newcastle United13.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona51.2

Newcastle United70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona60.7

Newcastle United56.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

2.34 xG/matchExpected goals5/52.45 xG/match

18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/515 shots/match

9.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/57 shots/match

65.6%Possession5/548%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.4 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match

2 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.23 xG/match

16.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.6 shots/match

7 shots/matchShots on target10/106.7 shots/match

63.2%Possession10/1049.6%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 12 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/122.42 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/12▲1.5 goals/match

2 xG/matchExpected goals10/12▲2.21 xG/match

16.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1214.1 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/126.58 shots/match

63.2%Possession10/1249.1%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/125.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls10/129.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches

4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/62.67 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/62.17 goals/match

2.52 xG/match▲Expected goals5/62.4 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shots5/614.3 shots/match

8.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/67.17 shots/match

67%Possession5/646%

6.4 corners/matchCorners5/64.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls5/68.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.91 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4