Premier League · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeStadium of LightFull-time recap

Sunderland

LLLDW

0–1Full-time recap

Brighton

LLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sunderland	Brighton
Shots	14 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.97 xG/match	1.57 xG/match▲
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	7 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sunderland show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.63 shots/match▲ShotsSunderland · Brighton12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Sunderland	Brighton	Baseline
Shots	9.63 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	14.6 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.7%▲PossessionSunderland · Brighton53%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Sunderland	Brighton	Baseline
Possession	43.7%	53%	50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Sunderland

1Draws

0Brighton

20 Dec 2025Brighton — Sunderland · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sunderland favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 7 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.3 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/301.2 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

9.63 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲12.7 shots/match

14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲12.2 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.37 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲3.9 shots/match

43.7%Possessionseason · 30/3053%

3.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304.77 corners/match

5.07 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲4.73 corners/match

2.07 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.48 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3023%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland17.5

Brighton67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland10.8

Brighton54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland39.2

Brighton65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland12.5

Brighton42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland43.8

Brighton90

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland12.5

Brighton42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland13.8

Brighton63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.4 shots/match

2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match

42.2%Possession5/553%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

9.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.1 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match

46.5%Possession10/1054.1%

3.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards9/92.56 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.3 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.2 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

9.63 shots/matchShots30/30▲12.7 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.37 shots/match

43.7%Possession30/3053%

3.53 corners/matchCorners30/304.77 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards29/292.48 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.13 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.33 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.1 shots/matchShots15/15▲11.9 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.07 shots/match

44.4%Possession15/1551.2%

3.8 corners/matchCorners15/154.4 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards14/143.21 cards/match

9.47 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.81 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4