Premier League · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 14:15 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WDLLL

2–0Full-time recap

West Ham

DDLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	West Ham
Shots	22 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.66 xG/match▲	0.94 xG/match
Possession	59%	41%
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	3 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Ham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

West Ham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Ham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.16 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.16 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · West Ham10.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	West Ham	Baseline
Shots	12.7 shots/match	10.1 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	12.7 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.6%▲PossessionAston Villa · West Ham42.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	West Ham	Baseline
Possession	53.6%	42.2%	50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

0Draws

0West Ham

14 Dec 2025West Ham — Aston Villa · Premier League2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · West Ham in 0 · 5 too close

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311.16 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.84 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3110.1 shots/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3115.3 shots/match

4.35 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/313.35 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/315.39 shots/match

53.6%Possessionseason · 31/3142.2%

5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/315.03 corners/match

4.77 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/316.55 corners/match

1.62 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/291.86 cards/match

9.77 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3113%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3168%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5

West Ham7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa55.8

West Ham20.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa49.2

West Ham7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa32.5

West Ham42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa17.5

West Ham57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa62.5

West Ham52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa47.5

West Ham40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

55.4%Possession5/540.6%

5 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match

54.8%Possession10/1039.8%

5.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311.16 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.84 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.7 shots/match▲Shots31/3110.1 shots/match

4.35 shots/match▲Shots on target31/313.35 shots/match

53.6%Possession31/3142.2%

5.29 corners/matchCorners31/315.03 corners/match

1.62 cards/matchCards29/291.86 cards/match

9.77 fouls/matchFouls31/3111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.13 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.81 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.1 shots/match▲Shots16/169.81 shots/match

4.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.31 shots/match

54.3%Possession16/1642.6%

5.75 corners/matchCorners16/164.56 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards15/152 cards/match

9.25 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.76 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4