Premier League · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 14:15 UTCFull timeTottenham Hotspur StadiumFull-time recap

Tottenham

LLLLD

0–3Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Tottenham	Nottingham Forest
Shots	14 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.14 xG/match	1.48 xG/match▲
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	13 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Tottenham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.29 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.3 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Tottenham

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

14 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest — Tottenham · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Tottenham favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 5 · 7 too close

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311 goals/match

1.61 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.39 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲12.6 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/3112.6 shots/match

3.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/313.97 shots/match

4.35 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲4.13 shots/match

49.9%Possessionseason · 31/3147.5%

5.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/315.35 corners/match

4.97 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/314.9 corners/match

2.76 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.55 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3110.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲26%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3155%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham47.5

Nottingham Forest42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham37.5

Nottingham Forest37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham22.5

Nottingham Forest45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham12.5

Nottingham Forest82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham88.8

Nottingham Forest33.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham57.5

Nottingham Forest67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham52.5

Nottingham Forest57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.6 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match

44.2%Possession5/542.2%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match

2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/matchShots10/1013.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match

47.3%Possession10/1042.5%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match

2.88 cards/matchCards8/81.38 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311 goals/match

1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.39 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.2 shots/matchShots31/31▲12.6 shots/match

3.81 shots/matchShots on target31/313.97 shots/match

49.9%Possession31/3147.5%

5.19 corners/matchCorners31/315.35 corners/match

2.76 cards/matchCards29/291.55 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls31/3110.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.13 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.5 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.3 shots/match

3.88 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.13 shots/match

51.8%Possession16/1645.3%

5.63 corners/matchCorners16/164.44 corners/match

3.2 cards/matchCards15/151.8 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.01 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4