Premier League · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

LLWWL

3–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

DDLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Chelsea
Shots	10 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.05 xG/match	1.11 xG/match▲
Possession	36%	64%
Corners	3 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.19 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.5%▲PossessionEverton · Chelsea59.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Chelsea	Baseline
Possession	43.5%	59.1%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Chelsea13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	13.6 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Everton

0Draws

1Chelsea

13 Dec 2025Chelsea — Everton · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 6 · 5 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.71 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.23 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲13.7 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲10.8 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲4.68 shots/match

4.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/314.06 shots/match

43.5%Possessionseason · 31/3159.1%

4.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/316.23 corners/match

5.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲4.13 corners/match

2.03 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.76 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3129%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton17.5

Chelsea87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton26.7

Chelsea75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton54.2

Chelsea70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton62.5

Chelsea27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton52.5

Chelsea81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton22.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton30

Chelsea76.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

41.6%Possession5/562.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/58.8 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/34.33 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.4 shots/match

44.7%Possession10/1062%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards8/83.25 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.19 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.71 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.23 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11 shots/matchShots31/31▲13.7 shots/match

3.58 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲4.68 shots/match

43.5%Possession31/3159.1%

4.35 corners/matchCorners31/316.23 corners/match

2.03 cards/matchCards29/292.76 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls31/3111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.31 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.88 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.31 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.4 shots/matchShots16/1612.6 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5 shots/match

47.6%Possession16/1657.4%

5.31 corners/matchCorners16/165.44 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards15/153.07 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4