Premier League · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeCraven CottageFull-time recap

Fulham

LWWLD

3–1Full-time recap

Burnley

WDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Burnley
Shots	22 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	3.24 xG/match▲	1.24 xG/match
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsFulham · Burnley9.26 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Fulham	Burnley	Baseline
Shots	12.3 shots/match	9.26 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	11.6 shots/match	16.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.39 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fulham have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.8%▲PossessionFulham · Burnley41.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fulham	Burnley	Baseline
Possession	51.8%	41.2%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Fulham

0Draws

0Burnley

13 Dec 2025Burnley — Fulham · Premier League2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 4 too close

1.39 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311.06 goals/match

1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.97 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/319.26 shots/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3116.8 shots/match

3.74 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/312.97 shots/match

3.87 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/315.65 shots/match

51.8%Possessionseason · 31/3141.2%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/313.58 corners/match

5.68 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/316 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCardsseason · 30/30▲1.83 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/319.97 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3113%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3165%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham57.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham44.2

Burnley9.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham62.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham37.5

Burnley22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham62.5

Burnley27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham37.5

Burnley12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham43.8

Burnley11.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

54%Possession5/540.4%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match

3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match

53%Possession10/1041.2%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match

1.89 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.39 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311.06 goals/match

1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.97 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.3 shots/match▲Shots31/319.26 shots/match

3.74 shots/match▲Shots on target31/312.97 shots/match

51.8%Possession31/3141.2%

4.71 corners/matchCorners31/313.58 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards30/301.83 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls31/319.97 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.13 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.38 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.8 shots/match▲Shots16/168.19 shots/match

3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.06 shots/match

53.5%Possession16/1640%

5.31 corners/matchCorners16/163.75 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards16/162.13 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4