Premier League · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDLLD

0–0Full-time recap

Fulham

LLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Fulham
Shots	11 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	0.71 xG/match▲	0.67 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	5 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.93 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

0Draws

1Fulham

22 Dec 2025Fulham — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Fulham in 4 · 5 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.33 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/301.43 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3012 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲11.7 shots/match

3.87 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/303.67 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲3.83 shots/match

47.6%Possessionseason · 30/3051.7%

5.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304.67 corners/match

4.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.67 corners/match

1.55 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.07 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3020%

53%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5

Fulham57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest38.3

Fulham41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest41.7

Fulham60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest82.5

Fulham27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest35

Fulham63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Fulham37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Fulham43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

17.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

46.4%Possession5/551.8%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.5 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/103.6 shots/match

43.6%Possession10/1053%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

1.22 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match

9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

0.93 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.33 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.43 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.8 shots/match▲Shots30/3012 shots/match

3.87 shots/match▲Shots on target30/303.67 shots/match

47.6%Possession30/3051.7%

5.43 corners/matchCorners30/304.67 corners/match

1.55 cards/matchCards29/292.07 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

0.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.07 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.67 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15.2 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.7 shots/match

3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.6 shots/match

49.8%Possession15/1550%

6.33 corners/matchCorners15/154.07 corners/match

1.29 cards/matchCards14/142.43 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.8 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4