Premier League · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap

Manchester United

WDWWL

3–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

DWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Aston Villa
Shots	14 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.84 xG/match	0.96 xG/match▲
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	5 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.9 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Aston Villa12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	15.9 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	10.8 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Manchester United

0Draws

1Aston Villa

21 Dec 2025Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 2 · 5 too close

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.33 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.23 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3012.4 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3012.8 shots/match

5.77 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/304.27 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.33 shots/match

53.4%Possessionseason · 30/3053.4%

4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/305.27 corners/match

4.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/304.73 corners/match

1.52 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/291.62 cards/match

9.57 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3010 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲27%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United77.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United94.2

Aston Villa53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United75

Aston Villa40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United5

Aston Villa22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United30

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United56.9

Aston Villa48.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

57.2%Possession5/553.6%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.3 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match

53.4%Possession10/1054.8%

4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

1.56 cards/matchCards9/91.56 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.33 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.23 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15.9 shots/match▲Shots30/3012.4 shots/match

5.77 shots/match▲Shots on target30/304.27 shots/match

53.4%Possession30/3053.4%

4.47 corners/matchCorners30/305.27 corners/match

1.52 cards/matchCards29/291.62 cards/match

9.57 fouls/matchFouls30/3010 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.27 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.47 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

17.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.3 shots/match

6.73 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154 shots/match

52.8%Possession15/1552.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners15/154.8 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCards14/141.86 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.8 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4