Premier League · 2025Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap

Bournemouth

WDDDD

2–2Full-time recap

Manchester United

DWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Manchester United
Shots	16 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.56 xG/match	1.77 xG/match▲
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	6 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.48 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Manchester United15.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Manchester United	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	15.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	12.7 shots/match	11 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth

1Draws

0Manchester United

15 Dec 2025Manchester United — Bournemouth · Premier League4–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 9 · 4 too close

1.48 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.81 goals/match

1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.39 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲15.8 shots/match

12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲11 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲5.74 shots/match

4.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲3.65 shots/match

50.4%Possessionseason · 31/3153.2%

5.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/314.58 corners/match

5.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲4.84 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 30/30▲1.57 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/319.55 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3116%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth52.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth75.8

Manchester United94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth27.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth92.5

Manchester United97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth85

Manchester United10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth77.5

Manchester United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth81.2

Manchester United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

16.4 shots/match▲Shots5/514.6 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match

57%Possession5/553.2%

6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.5 shots/matchShots10/1013.9 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.9 shots/match

50%Possession10/1051.4%

5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match

2.22 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.48 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.81 goals/match

1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.39 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14 shots/matchShots31/31▲15.8 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲5.74 shots/match

50.4%Possession31/3153.2%

5.71 corners/matchCorners31/314.58 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards30/301.57 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls31/319.55 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.63 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.5 shots/matchShots16/1614.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.81 shots/match

52.8%Possession16/1653.5%

5.5 corners/matchCorners16/164.38 corners/match

2.13 cards/matchCards16/161.5 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls16/168.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.25 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4