PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleChelsea
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle have a visible home split

moderate

Newcastle's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match12.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 5 too close

1.35 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.71 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲14.1 shots/match
10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/1710.1 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.06 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.18 shots/match
51.2%Possessionseason · 17/1758.5%
6.12 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.47 corners/match
5.65 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.18 corners/match
1.53 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.41 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲47%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle52.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle52.5
Chelsea80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle71.7
Chelsea86.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle37.5
Chelsea47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle20
Chelsea83.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Chelsea77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle61.2
Chelsea80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/513.2 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
54.8%Possession5/556.2%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.9 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
52.6%Possession10/1057.1%
6 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.71 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots17/17▲14.1 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.06 shots/match
51.2%Possession17/1758.5%
6.12 corners/matchCorners17/175.47 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCards17/172.41 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots9/913.1 shots/match
5.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.89 shots/match
48.6%Possession9/958.6%
7.33 corners/matchCorners9/94.22 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards9/93.11 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls9/912.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Newcastle vs Chelsea — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath