PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Mon, 22 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeCraven CottageFull-time recap

Fulham

WWLLW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamNottingham Forest
Shots11 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match2 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match4 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.41 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.78 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.78 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 4 · 5 too close

1.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/171.53 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲12.3 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1712.7 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲3.94 shots/match
4.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.47 shots/match
50.8%Possessionseason · 17/1750.7%
4.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.35 corners/match
5.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.53 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲1.76 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1718%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1747%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham47.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham39.2
Nottingham Forest35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham47.5
Nottingham Forest30.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham27.5
Nottingham Forest62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham62.5
Nottingham Forest52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham37.5
Nottingham Forest70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham44.4
Nottingham Forest57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/551.8%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
6.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/103.9 shots/match
51%Possession10/1046.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.41 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots17/17▲12.3 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲3.94 shots/match
50.8%Possession17/1750.7%
4.88 corners/matchCorners17/175.35 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards17/171.76 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.67 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots9/99.78 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target9/93.67 shots/match
54%Possession9/949.8%
5.67 corners/matchCorners9/94.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls9/910.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.25 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 23 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Fulham vs Nottingham Forest — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath