PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolBrighton
Shots18 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners2 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Liverpool, Brighton. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Liverpool, Brighton.

6.9 days▲Rest daysLiverpool · Brighton6.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLiverpoolBrightonBaseline
Rest days6.9 days6.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Brighton13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolBrightonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match12 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 1 · 8 too close

1.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/161.56 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.44 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1613.5 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/164.56 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164 shots/match
60.6%Possessionseason · 16/1651.6%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.13 corners/match
4.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.44 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.44 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Brighton57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool75.8
Brighton70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool59.2
Brighton52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool77.5
Brighton82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool52.5
Brighton87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool37.5
Brighton45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool60
Brighton69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/matchShots5/516.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
60.6%Possession5/557.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1015.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
58.4%Possession10/1055.5%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.63 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.56 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1613.5 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target16/164.56 shots/match
60.6%Possession16/1651.6%
5 corners/matchCorners16/165.13 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards16/162.44 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots8/812.9 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.75 shots/match
60%Possession8/852.3%
5.13 corners/matchCorners8/84.88 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/83.13 cards/match
9.38 fouls/matchFouls8/812.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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