PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

LLLLL
2–3Full-time recap

Fulham

LWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyFulham
Shots16 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners10 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham have a visible away split

moderate

Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match11.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham.

7.1 days▲Rest daysBurnley · Fulham6.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurnleyFulhamBaseline
Rest days7.1 days6.04 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Fulham in 9 · 5 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.44 goals/match
2.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.75 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲11.4 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.3 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲3.81 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.31 shots/match
40.9%Possessionseason · 16/1650.8%
3.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.13 corners/match
6.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲5.31 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/161.75 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲19%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Fulham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley13.3
Fulham44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley5.8
Fulham44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley12.5
Fulham17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley25
Fulham62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley12.5
Fulham45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley13.8
Fulham50.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
46.6%Possession5/552.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/56.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.1 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match
45.5%Possession10/1050.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.44 goals/match
2.06 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.75 shots/matchShots16/16▲11.4 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲3.81 shots/match
40.9%Possession16/1650.8%
3.69 corners/matchCorners16/165.13 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards16/161.75 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.13 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8 shots/matchShots8/8▲9.25 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲3.63 shots/match
41.3%Possession8/847.1%
3.13 corners/matchCorners8/84 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/82.25 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls8/812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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