PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWDWL
2–1Full-time recap

Wolves

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalWolves
Shots16 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners8 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Wolves8.63 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalWolvesBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match8.63 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against7.44 shots/match14.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.56 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal, Wolves.

7.31 days▲Rest daysArsenal · Wolves5 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricArsenalWolvesBaseline
Rest days7.31 days5 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Wolves in 0 · 4 too close

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/160.56 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162.19 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/168.63 shots/match
7.44 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1614.1 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/162.81 shots/match
2.25 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.81 shots/match
59.4%Possessionseason · 16/1645.9%
6.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/162.75 corners/match
3.06 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.5 corners/match
1.25 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.31 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1614.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/160%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1644%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal92.5
Wolves32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal88.3
Wolves2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Wolves12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal57.5
Wolves7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal15
Wolves90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5
Wolves2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal71.9
Wolves26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/56.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
60.6%Possession5/542.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/51.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/517 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots10/107.8 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.5 shots/match
61.3%Possession10/1044.5%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/101.8 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.56 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.19 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots16/168.63 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target16/162.81 shots/match
59.4%Possession16/1645.9%
6.06 corners/matchCorners16/162.75 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards16/162.31 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.25 goals/match
0.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots8/87.38 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.25 shots/match
63.1%Possession8/843%
6.13 corners/matchCorners8/82.88 corners/match
0.38 cards/matchCards8/83.13 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls8/815 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.31 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalWolves
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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