PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

LLWLL
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsAston Villa
Shots14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leeds have a visible home split

moderate

Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 4 · 7 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.25 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1211.1 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1212.6 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/123.5 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲3.33 shots/match
48.3%Possessionseason · 12/1253.8%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.17 corners/match
3.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/125.17 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/121.75 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲33%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1258%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds37.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds33.3
Aston Villa35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds49.2
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds77.5
Aston Villa12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds41.2
Aston Villa26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds32.5
Aston Villa40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds43.1
Aston Villa29.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/53.8 shots/match
52.4%Possession5/549%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.3 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
49.3%Possession10/1052.9%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.25 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.1 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target12/123.5 shots/match
48.3%Possession12/1253.8%
4.17 corners/matchCorners12/125.17 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.17 shots/match
47.3%Possession6/657.5%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards6/61.67 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/611 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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