Premier League · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLLLD

3–1Full-time recap

Leeds

DLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Leeds
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.83 shots/match	12 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 6 · 7 too close

0.91 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/110.91 goals/match

1.82 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/111.82 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1112 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲10.5 shots/match

3.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.45 shots/match

5.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4 shots/match

52.5%Possessionseason · 11/1148.3%

5.09 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.27 corners/match

4.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲3.27 corners/match

1.82 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲1.45 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲18%

45%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲55%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Leeds37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest35.8

Leeds32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest16.7

Leeds51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Leeds82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Leeds21.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest42.5

Leeds32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest51.9

Leeds36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match

3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

46.8%Possession5/554.2%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲0.9 goals/match

1.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match

3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match

52.4%Possession10/1047.7%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match

1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches

0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/110.91 goals/match

1.82 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.82 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.9 shots/matchShots11/1112 shots/match

3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.45 shots/match

52.5%Possession11/1148.3%

5.09 corners/matchCorners11/114.27 corners/match

1.82 cards/matchCards11/111.45 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1110 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match

1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots6/68.83 shots/match

4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.83 shots/match

52.3%Possession6/649.2%

6.67 corners/matchCorners6/63.5 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls6/610 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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