Premier League · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WWWWL

4–0Full-time recap

Bournemouth

DWDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Bournemouth
Shots	16 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	52%	48%
Corners	6 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	20 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.18 goals/match	1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 6 · 5 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.64 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲12 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲11.8 shots/match

3.55 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.45 shots/match

3.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/114.91 shots/match

53.9%Possessionseason · 11/1150.6%

5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.82 corners/match

5.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.55 corners/match

1.82 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/112.45 cards/match

9.55 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1136%

55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5

Bournemouth55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa35

Bournemouth63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa63.3

Bournemouth30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa7.5

Bournemouth47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa31.2

Bournemouth90

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa60

Bournemouth82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa36.2

Bournemouth74.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match

49.6%Possession5/550.8%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match

8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/matchShots10/1012.2 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match

55.3%Possession10/1051.8%

5.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches

1.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.64 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.8 shots/matchShots11/11▲12 shots/match

3.55 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.45 shots/match

53.9%Possession11/1150.6%

5.36 corners/matchCorners11/115.82 corners/match

1.82 cards/matchCards11/112.45 cards/match

9.55 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.5 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.8 shots/matchShots6/6▲11.7 shots/match

4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.5 shots/match

50%Possession6/647.5%

5.33 corners/matchCorners6/66.17 corners/match

1.83 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match

9.17 fouls/matchFouls6/613.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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