PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordNewcastle
Shots15 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls23 fouls/match0 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.1%▲PossessionBrentford · Newcastle51.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordNewcastleBaseline
Possession43.1%51.2%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 5 · 4 too close

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.27 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲11.9 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲10.6 shots/match
4.45 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.64 shots/match
3.55 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/114.55 shots/match
43.1%Possessionseason · 11/1151.2%
5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.45 corners/match
4.27 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲1.45 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲45%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford12.5
Newcastle62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford52.5
Newcastle36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford48.3
Newcastle53.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford67.5
Newcastle37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford76.2
Newcastle32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford60
Newcastle67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford59.4
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/513.8 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match
46.6%Possession5/554%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.5 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
42.8%Possession10/1050.3%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots11/11▲11.9 shots/match
4.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.64 shots/match
43.1%Possession11/1151.2%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/115.45 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards11/111.45 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.5 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots6/610.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.33 shots/match
35.8%Possession6/654.8%
4.17 corners/matchCorners6/64.17 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/61.67 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls6/69.17 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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