PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeLondon StadiumFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest HamNewcastle
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession37%63%
Corners7 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsWest Ham · Newcastle12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWest HamNewcastleBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.6 corners/match▲CornersWest Ham · Newcastle5.8 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricWest HamNewcastleBaseline
Corners5.6 corners/match5.8 corners/match5.05 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

West Ham favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 8 · 6 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/101 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲12.6 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲10.2 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/103.9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲4.3 shots/match
45.9%Possessionseason · 10/1051.2%
5.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.8 corners/match
7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.9 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲50%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲70%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Ham27.5
Newcastle60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Ham31.7
Newcastle49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Ham9.2
Newcastle60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Ham22.5
Newcastle62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Ham32.5
Newcastle40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Ham77.5
Newcastle82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Ham46.2
Newcastle68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
44%Possession5/551.2%
5 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/103.9 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1051.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/103.9 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1051.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
43%Possession5/555.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWest HamNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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