PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolAston Villa
Shots16 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.9 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Aston Villa10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolAston VillaBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match10.3 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 3 · 6 too close

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1010.3 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1012.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/103.1 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.2 shots/match
61.6%Possessionseason · 10/1054.1%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.3 corners/match
4.9 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/105 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/109.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1030%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool83.3
Aston Villa21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool58.3
Aston Villa61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool72.5
Aston Villa7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool40
Aston Villa37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool45
Aston Villa65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool56.9
Aston Villa34.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
60.4%Possession5/548.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
61.6%Possession10/1054.1%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
61.6%Possession10/1054.1%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
57.6%Possession5/558.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.25 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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