PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeTottenham Hotspur StadiumFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

LLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTottenhamChelsea
Shots3 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Tottenham's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.2 corners/match▲CornersTottenham · Chelsea6.1 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricTottenhamChelseaBaseline
Corners6.2 corners/match6.1 corners/match5.05 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Tottenham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Tottenham's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.8 shots/match9.7 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Tottenham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Tottenham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.7 shots/match▲ShotsTottenham · Chelsea13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTottenhamChelseaBaseline
Shots9.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Tottenham favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 7 · 5 too close

1.7 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲13.8 shots/match
12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲10.1 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲5.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.1 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 10/1059.3%
6.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106.1 corners/match
5.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲4.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 10/102.5 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1011.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1040%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham72.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham36.7
Chelsea88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham55
Chelsea77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham2.5
Chelsea42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham72.5
Chelsea75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham92.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham51.2
Chelsea80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/556.6%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession10/1059.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession10/1059.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
56%Possession5/557.2%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTottenhamChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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