Qarabağ and Chelsea drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Qarabağ – Chelsea): shots 9–16, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.63–1.26, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
This match
Match statistics
QarabagChelsea
Shots9 shots16 shotsQarabag 9 shots, Chelsea 16 shots
Shots on target3 shots4 shotsQarabag 3 shots, Chelsea 4 shots
Expected goals1.63 xG1.26 xGQarabag 1.63 xG, Chelsea 1.26 xG
Possession39%61%Qarabag 39%, Chelsea 61%
Corners2 corners8 cornersQarabag 2 corners, Chelsea 8 corners
Fouls9 fouls19 foulsQarabag 9 fouls, Chelsea 19 fouls
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
Chelsea← attackingattacking →Qarabağ
off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG
Qarabağ: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.88 xG. Chelsea: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.28 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
Qarabağ1.88 xGChelsea1.28 xG
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Qarabağ 1.88 xG · Chelsea 1.28 xG.
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Where the edge is
Season: Qarabag favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0 · 11 too close
▲ led this metric● higher value (descriptive) too close
Window
Season
Qarabag10 matchesChelsea4 matches
2.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/42.25 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/41.5 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.64 xG/match
9.83 shots/matchShots6/4▲ 13.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/4▲ 5 shots/match
45.3%Possession6/4● 56.8%
2.67 corners/matchCorners6/4● 6 corners/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls6/413.5 fouls/match
Window
Last 10
Qarabag10 matchesChelsea4 matches
2.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/42.25 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/41.5 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.64 xG/match
9.83 shots/matchShots6/4▲ 13.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/4▲ 5 shots/match
45.3%Possession6/4● 56.8%
2.67 corners/matchCorners6/4● 6 corners/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls6/413.5 fouls/match
Window
Last 5
Qarabag5 matchesChelsea4 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲ 2.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.64 xG/match
9.6 shots/matchShots5/4▲ 13.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/4▲ 5 shots/match
43.2%Possession5/4● 56.8%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/4● 6 corners/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/413.5 fouls/match
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Qarabag22.6
Chelsea81.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Qarabag41.4
Chelsea61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 73%
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Qarabag52.6
Chelsea73.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 73%
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Qarabag17.9
Chelsea36.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Qarabag10.7
Chelsea79.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 30%
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Qarabag3.6
Chelsea83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
Qarabag14.6
Chelsea67.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%
14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 match
Qarabag / Chelsea
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.
Known unknowns
Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 5 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4