UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 5 Nov 2025, 17:45 UTCFull timeAlphamega StadiumFull-time recap

Pafos FC

WDDLD

1–0Full-time recap

Villarreal

LDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Pafos FC	Villarreal
Shots	5 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.75 xG/match	1.77 xG/match▲
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Pafos FC: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.77 xG. Villarreal: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Pafos FC 0.77 xG · Villarreal 1.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Pafos FC favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Villarreal in 0 · 14 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/40.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/41.5 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.34 xG/match

2.34 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.1 xG/match

8.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/414 shots/match

20.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/49.25 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/43.25 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/43.25 shots/match

38.2%Possessionseason · 6/445%

2.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/42.75 corners/match

6.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/42.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/412.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

60%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/40%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/425%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Pafos FC3.6

Villarreal17.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Pafos FC16.4

Villarreal28.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 73%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Pafos FC36.8

Villarreal70.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 73%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Pafos FC22.6

Villarreal70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Pafos FC77.4

Villarreal69

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 30%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Pafos FC1.2

Villarreal8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Pafos FC25

Villarreal38.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 4 matches

0.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/40.5 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/41.5 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.34 xG/match

7.4 shots/matchShots5/4▲14 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/43.25 shots/match

37.2%Possession5/445%

2.2 corners/matchCorners5/42.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/412.5 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 4 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/40.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/41.5 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.34 xG/match

8.5 shots/matchShots6/4▲14 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/43.25 shots/match

38.2%Possession6/445%

2.5 corners/matchCorners6/42.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls6/412.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 4 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/40.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/41.5 goals/match

0.82 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.34 xG/match

8.5 shots/matchShots6/4▲14 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/43.25 shots/match

38.2%Possession6/445%

2.5 corners/matchCorners6/42.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls6/412.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 2 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/2—

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

7.33 shots/matchShots3/2—

3 shots/matchShots on target3/2—

41.3%Possession3/2—

2.33 corners/matchCorners3/2—

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 5 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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