PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestManchester United
Shots17 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners8 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match0 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.7 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Manchester United15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match15.3 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 9 · 5 too close

0.7 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲15.3 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲11.7 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲5.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲4.2 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 10/1051.2%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/103.9 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/105.1 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.4 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/108.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲10%
40%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest67.5
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest33.3
Manchester United85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest11.7
Manchester United39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest27.5
Manchester United92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest60
Manchester United7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Manchester United22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest51.9
Manchester United53.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/549%
5 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.3 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
53.2%Possession10/1051.2%
5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/108.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.3 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
53.2%Possession10/1051.2%
5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/108.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/550.8%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.94 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match