PitchMath
League One · 2026

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday · League One

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
11.88
Expected goals
1.151.93
Shots
1214.9
Possession
45.8%56.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: notts County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: sheffield Wednesday have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Notts County's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Notts County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Sheffield Wednesday have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.8%PossessionNotts County · Sheffield Wednesday● 56.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNotts CountySheffield WednesdayBaseline
Possession45.8%56.1%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Notts County favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Sheffield Wednesday in 9 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Notts County8 matchesSheffield Wednesday8 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1 goal/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.93 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 14.9 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.63 shots/match
45.8%Possession8/8● 56.1%
4.5 corners/matchCorners8/8● 6.88 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNotts CountySheffield Wednesday
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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