PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Rionegro Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.131.21
Expected goals
1.131.28
Shots
1213.9
Possession
50.9%55.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: deportes Tolima's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportes Tolima's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible away split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rionegro Águilas Doradas favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 9 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rionegro Águilas Doradas30 matchesDeportes Tolima38 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored30/38▲ 1.21 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed30/38▲ 0.89 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals24/31▲ 1.28 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots30/36▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on target30/36▲ 4.83 shots/match
50.9%Possession30/36● 55.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners30/36● 5.17 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/103.9 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls30/3610.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Rionegro Águilas Doradas
0Draws
1Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima — Rionegro Águilas Doradas · Primera A4–1

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples30 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness14 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRionegro Águilas DoradasDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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