PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Jaguares de Córdoba 3–2 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Jaguares de Córdoba won 3–2.

Shots
916
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
0.351.44
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Jaguares de Córdoba beat Deportes Tolima 3–2. Recorded in this match (Jaguares de Córdoba – Deportes Tolima): shots 9–16, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 0.35–1.44, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportes Tolima.

8.09 days ▲Rest daysJaguares de Córdoba · Deportes Tolima2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricJaguares de CórdobaDeportes TolimaBaseline
Rest days8.09 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Jaguares de Córdoba's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Jaguares de Córdoba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Deportes Tolima's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsJaguares de Córdoba · Deportes Tolima14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricJaguares de CórdobaDeportes TolimaBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots16 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 9 shots, Deportes Tolima 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 5 shots, Deportes Tolima 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.35 xG1.44 xGJaguares de Córdoba 0.35 xG, Deportes Tolima 1.44 xG
  • Possession39%61%Jaguares de Córdoba 39%, Deportes Tolima 61%
  • Corners0 corners7 cornersJaguares de Córdoba 0 corners, Deportes Tolima 7 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsJaguares de Córdoba 13 fouls, Deportes Tolima 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsJaguares de Córdoba 3 cards, Deportes Tolima 3 cards
  • Passes299 passes460 passesJaguares de Córdoba 299 passes, Deportes Tolima 460 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.6%86.5%Jaguares de Córdoba 83.6%, Deportes Tolima 86.5%
  • Shots inside box3 shots13 shotsJaguares de Córdoba 3 shots, Deportes Tolima 13 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksJaguares de Córdoba 3 blocks, Deportes Tolima 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves2 savesJaguares de Córdoba 4 saves, Deportes Tolima 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesJaguares de Córdoba 1 offside, Deportes Tolima 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Jaguares de Córdoba
0Draws
1Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima — Jaguares de Córdoba · Primera A3–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Jaguares de Córdoba favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 11 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Jaguares de Córdoba31 matchesDeportes Tolima39 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored31/39▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed31/39▲ 0.95 goals/match
0.87 xG/matchExpected goals27/32▲ 1.28 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots31/37▲ 14 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on target31/37▲ 4.86 shots/match
45.3%Possession31/37● 56%
3.94 corners/matchCorners31/37● 5.22 corners/match
4.83 cards/matchCards6/103.9 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls31/3710.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples31 / 39home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJaguares de CórdobaDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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