PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Nacional 0–0 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

0–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional and Deportes Tolima drew 0–0.

Shots
1416
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
1.050.68
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Nacional and Deportes Tolima drew 0–0. Recorded in this match (Atlético Nacional – Deportes Tolima): shots 14–16, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 1.05–0.68, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportes Tolima's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible away split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.39 corners/match ●CornersAtlético Nacional · Deportes Tolima5.17 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtlético NacionalDeportes TolimaBaseline
Corners5.39 corners/match5.17 corners/match4.43 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots16 shotsAtlético Nacional 14 shots, Deportes Tolima 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shotsAtlético Nacional 6 shots, Deportes Tolima 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.05 xG0.68 xGAtlético Nacional 1.05 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.68 xG
  • Possession60%40%Atlético Nacional 60%, Deportes Tolima 40%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersAtlético Nacional 2 corners, Deportes Tolima 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsAtlético Nacional 12 fouls, Deportes Tolima 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsAtlético Nacional 0 cards, Deportes Tolima 2 cards
  • Passes460 passes311 passesAtlético Nacional 460 passes, Deportes Tolima 311 passes
  • Pass accuracy88%78.1%Atlético Nacional 88%, Deportes Tolima 78.1%
  • Shots inside box9 shots7 shotsAtlético Nacional 9 shots, Deportes Tolima 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksAtlético Nacional 3 blocks, Deportes Tolima 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves8 saves6 savesAtlético Nacional 8 saves, Deportes Tolima 6 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideAtlético Nacional 4 offsides, Deportes Tolima 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atlético Nacional
0Draws
1Deportes Tolima
Atlético Nacional — Deportes Tolima · Primera A3–1
Deportes Tolima — Atlético Nacional · Primera A0–1
Deportes Tolima — Atlético Nacional · Primera A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Nacional favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 2 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Nacional36 matchesDeportes Tolima38 matches
1.94 goals/match ▲Goals scored36/381.21 goals/match
0.86 goals/matchGoals allowed36/380.89 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals36/311.28 xG/match
16.5 shots/match ▲Shots36/3613.9 shots/match
6.22 shots/match ▲Shots on target36/364.83 shots/match
58.2% ●Possession36/3655.8%
5.39 corners/match ●Corners36/365.17 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards7/103.9 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls36/3610.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples36 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 03:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético NacionalDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
Head-to-headAtlético Nacional — Deportes Tolima
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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