PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.141.48
Expected goals
0.831.34
Shots
11.715.6
Possession
52.9%48.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: millonarios's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

weak

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Millonarios show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Millonarios's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsFortaleza CEIF · Millonarios15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFortaleza CEIFMillonariosBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Millonarios in 10 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF28 matchesMillonarios29 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored28/29▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed28/29▲ 1.07 goals/match
0.83 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.34 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots28/29▲ 15.6 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target28/29▲ 5.79 shots/match
52.9% ●Possession28/2948.8%
4.18 corners/matchCorners28/29● 5.9 corners/match
3.56 cards/matchCards9/64.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2911.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza CEIF
1Draws
0Millonarios
Millonarios — Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A2–2

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness27 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFMillonarios
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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