PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Fortaleza CEIF 1–1 Millonarios · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza CEIF and Millonarios drew 1–1.

Shots
1713
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
11.08
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza CEIF and Millonarios drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza CEIF – Millonarios): shots 17–13, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1–1.08, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

weak

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots13 shotsFortaleza CEIF 17 shots, Millonarios 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsFortaleza CEIF 3 shots, Millonarios 5 shots
  • Expected goals1 xG1.08 xGFortaleza CEIF 1 xG, Millonarios 1.08 xG
  • Possession56%44%Fortaleza CEIF 56%, Millonarios 44%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersFortaleza CEIF 3 corners, Millonarios 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsFortaleza CEIF 15 fouls, Millonarios 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsFortaleza CEIF 3 cards, Millonarios 2 cards
  • Passes494 passes375 passesFortaleza CEIF 494 passes, Millonarios 375 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.5%86.7%Fortaleza CEIF 89.5%, Millonarios 86.7%
  • Shots inside box7 shots9 shotsFortaleza CEIF 7 shots, Millonarios 9 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks2 blocksFortaleza CEIF 6 blocks, Millonarios 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves2 savesFortaleza CEIF 4 saves, Millonarios 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesFortaleza CEIF 1 offside, Millonarios 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza CEIF
1Draws
0Millonarios
Millonarios — Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Millonarios in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF32 matchesMillonarios33 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored32/33▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed32/33▲ 1.06 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 1.3 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots32/33▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target32/33▲ 5.76 shots/match
52.7% ●Possession32/3348.7%
4.09 corners/matchCorners32/33● 5.7 corners/match
3.75 cards/matchCards12/84 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls32/3311.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples32 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFMillonarios
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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