PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.231.14
Expected goals
1.070.83
Shots
11.811.7
Possession
51.9%52.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: deportivo Pasto's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Deportivo Pasto's recent record differs from the season

weak

Deportivo Pasto's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.23 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportivo Pasto favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 3 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportivo Pasto30 matchesFortaleza CEIF28 matches
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/281.14 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed30/281.39 goals/match
1.07 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/240.83 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots30/2811.7 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target30/283.75 shots/match
51.9%Possession30/28● 52.9%
4.13 corners/matchCorners30/28● 4.18 corners/match
5 cards/matchCards11/93.56 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls30/2811.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Deportivo Pasto
0Draws
0Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF — Deportivo Pasto · Primera A1–2

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness23 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportivo PastoFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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