PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
12
Expected goals
1.42.13
Shots
11.319.3
Possession
34.7%50.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: FC Schalke 04's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

FC Schalke 04 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Schalke 04's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Schalke 04 · 1. FSV Mainz 0519.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Schalke 041. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots11.3 shots/match19.3 shots/match15.7 shots/match
Shots against20 shots/match9.67 shots/match17.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05 have recorded the higher season possession share.

34.7%PossessionFC Schalke 04 · 1. FSV Mainz 05● 50.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Schalke 041. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession34.7%50.7%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Schalke 04 favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Schalke 043 matches1. FSV Mainz 053 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 2 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 1 goal/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 2.13 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲ 19.3 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 5.67 shots/match
34.7%Possession3/3● 50.7%
2.67 corners/matchCorners3/3● 6.67 corners/match
7 fouls/matchFouls3/312.7 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Schalke 04
0Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga2–3
FC Schalke 04 — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Schalke 041. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headFC Schalke 04 — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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