PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.51.5
Expected goals
0.911.75
Shots
9.515.3
Possession
41.5%53%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match15.3 shots/match14.9 shots/match
Shots against18.5 shots/match18 shots/match16.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.5%PossessionHamburger SV · VfB Stuttgart● 53%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession41.5%53%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hamburger SV4 matchesVfB Stuttgart4 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.5 goals/match
3.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 2.25 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.75 xG/match
9.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 15.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 5.5 shots/match
41.5%Possession4/4● 53%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6.5 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls4/49.75 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Hamburger SV
0Draws
3VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga4–0
Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–1
Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–3
VfB Stuttgart — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headHamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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