PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Hamburger SV won 2–3.

Shots
1715
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.041.25
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hamburger SV beat TSG Hoffenheim 3–2. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV): shots 17–15, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.04–1.25, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.4 fouls/matchFoulsTSG Hoffenheim · Hamburger SV14.6 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimHamburger SVBaseline
Fouls13.4 fouls/match14.6 fouls/match10.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.6 shots/match ▲ShotsTSG Hoffenheim · Hamburger SV10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimHamburger SVBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match10.6 shots/match15.8 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match18.2 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.4% ●PossessionTSG Hoffenheim · Hamburger SV40.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimHamburger SVBaseline
Possession58.4%40.4%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots15 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 17 shots, Hamburger SV 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 4 shots, Hamburger SV 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.04 xG1.25 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.04 xG, Hamburger SV 1.25 xG
  • Possession64%36%TSG Hoffenheim 64%, Hamburger SV 36%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 7 corners, Hamburger SV 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls15 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 11 fouls, Hamburger SV 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards0 cardsTSG Hoffenheim 3 cards, Hamburger SV 0 cards
  • Passes544 passes305 passesTSG Hoffenheim 544 passes, Hamburger SV 305 passes
  • Pass accuracy82%69.8%TSG Hoffenheim 82%, Hamburger SV 69.8%
  • Shots inside box10 shots10 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 10 shots, Hamburger SV 10 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks4 blocksTSG Hoffenheim 8 blocks, Hamburger SV 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesTSG Hoffenheim 1 save, Hamburger SV 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesTSG Hoffenheim 3 offsides, Hamburger SV 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 12′Yussuf PoulsenGoal · Hamburger SV
  2. 45′Sebastiaan BornauwGoal · Hamburger SV
  3. Half-time
  4. 53′Bambasé ContéGoal · TSG Hoffenheim
  5. 55′BernardoYellow card · TSG Hoffenheim
  6. 65′BernardoSecond yellow · TSG Hoffenheim
  7. 80′Leon AvdullahuYellow card · TSG Hoffenheim
  8. 83′Terem MoffiGoal · Hamburger SV
  9. 90′Miro MuheimGoal · Hamburger SV
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 41′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeMiro Muheim
  • 59′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeOtto Stange
  • 63′TSG Hoffenheim · 2 player changesAdam Hložek · Andrej Kramarić
  • 74′TSG Hoffenheim · 2 player changesAlexander Prass · Robin Hranáč
  • 76′Hamburger SV · 3 player changesKofi Jeremy Amoako · Terem Moffi · Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
  • 87′TSG Hoffenheim · 1 player changeValentin Gendrey

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

TSG Hoffenheim4-4-2
  1. Oliver BaumannG
  2. Ozan KabakD
  3. Koki MachidaD
  4. Vladimír CoufalD
  5. Mats RotsD
  6. Leon AvdullahuM
  7. Adam DaghimM
  8. Wouter BurgerM
  9. Bambasé ContéM
  10. Adam HložekF
  11. Tim LemperleF
Hamburger SV3-4-2-1
  1. Daniel FernandesG
  2. David Møller WolfeD
  3. Bakery JattaD
  4. Jordan TorunarighaD
  5. Nicolás CapaldoD
  6. Sebastiaan BornauwD
  7. Albert Sambi LokongaM
  8. Nicolai RembergM
  9. Martin AdelineF
  10. Yussuf PoulsenF
  11. Fábio VieiraF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2TSG Hoffenheim
0Draws
0Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–2
TSG Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim5 matchesHamburger SV5 matches
1.8 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51 goal/match
2.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
1.6 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/50.98 xG/match
18.6 shots/match ▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
58.4% ●Possession5/540.4%
6.8 corners/match ●Corners5/53.6 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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