PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

0–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 0–2.

Shots
2418
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
1.832.39
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat SC Paderborn 07 2–0. Recorded in this match (SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart): shots 24–18, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 1.83–2.39, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Paderborn 07 have a visible home split

weak

SC Paderborn 07's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match14.2 shots/match15.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots18 shotsSC Paderborn 07 24 shots, VfB Stuttgart 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shotsSC Paderborn 07 6 shots, VfB Stuttgart 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.83 xG2.39 xGSC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG, VfB Stuttgart 2.39 xG
  • Possession52%48%SC Paderborn 07 52%, VfB Stuttgart 48%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersSC Paderborn 07 7 corners, VfB Stuttgart 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsSC Paderborn 07 10 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsSC Paderborn 07 1 card, VfB Stuttgart 0 cards
  • Passes490 passes457 passesSC Paderborn 07 490 passes, VfB Stuttgart 457 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.2%78.1%SC Paderborn 07 81.2%, VfB Stuttgart 78.1%
  • Shots inside box16 shots16 shotsSC Paderborn 07 16 shots, VfB Stuttgart 16 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks5 blocksSC Paderborn 07 8 blocks, VfB Stuttgart 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves4 savesSC Paderborn 07 5 saves, VfB Stuttgart 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideSC Paderborn 07 1 offside, VfB Stuttgart 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 25′Jeff ChabotGoal · VfB Stuttgart
  2. 45′Marvin PieringerYellow card · SC Paderborn 07
  3. Half-time
  4. 83′Chris FührichGoal · VfB Stuttgart
  5. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 70′SC Paderborn 07 · 2 player changesSteffen Tigges · Rayan Philippe
  • 72′VfB Stuttgart · 1 player changeFinn Jeltsch
  • 77′VfB Stuttgart · 2 player changesDženan Pejčinović · Bilal El Khannouss
  • 80′SC Paderborn 07 · 1 player changeOliver Batista Meier
  • 85′VfB Stuttgart · 2 player changesLeo Sauer · Grischa Prömel
  • 85′SC Paderborn 07 · 2 player changesJonah Sticker · Felix Götze

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

SC Paderborn 073-5-2
  1. Nahuel NollG
  2. Laurin CurdaD
  3. Jano Ter-HorstD
  4. Mattes HansenD
  5. Raphael ObermairD
  6. Tjark Lasse SchellerD
  7. Santiago CastañedaM
  8. Laurin UlrichM
  9. Gabriel VidovićM
  10. Marvin PieringerF
  11. Stefano MarinoF
VfB Stuttgart4-2-3-1
  1. Dennis SeimenG
  2. Josha VagnomanD
  3. Maximilian MittelstädtD
  4. Jeff ChabotD
  5. Finn JeltschD
  6. Angelo StillerM
  7. Grischa PrömelM
  8. Deniz UndavM
  9. Chris FührichF
  10. Bilal El KhannoussF
  11. Dženan PejčinovićF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Paderborn 07 favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Paderborn 075 matchesVfB Stuttgart5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.88 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 15.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 6 shots/match
47.8%Possession5/5● 52%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 6.2 corners/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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