PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

3–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 3–4.

Shots
2316
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
2.871.69
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 4–3. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 23–16, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 2.87–1.69, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.2 fouls/matchFouls1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen12.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Fouls12.2 fouls/match12.4 fouls/match10.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.4%Possession1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 59.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Possession50.4%59.6%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots16 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 23 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.87 xG1.69 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.87 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.69 xG
  • Possession47%53%1. FSV Mainz 05 47%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 53%
  • Corners4 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 11 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 card1. FSV Mainz 05 3 cards, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 card
  • Passes442 passes508 passes1. FSV Mainz 05 442 passes, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 508 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%85.2%1. FSV Mainz 05 83%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 85.2%
  • Shots inside box17 shots12 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 17 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks3 blocks1. FSV Mainz 05 7 blocks, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 save1. FSV Mainz 05 3 saves, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offside1. FSV Mainz 05 0 offsides, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Robert AndrichGoal · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  2. 9′Patrik SchickGoal · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  3. 20′Phillip TietzYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  4. 33′Anthony CaciGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  5. 35′Sheraldo BeckerYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  6. 42′Anthony CaciGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  7. Half-time
  8. 55′Jarell QuansahGoal · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  9. 65′Moussa DiabyGoal · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  10. 76′Jae-sung LeeYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  11. 90′Benedict HollerbachGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  12. 90′Jarell QuansahYellow card · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
  13. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 66′Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 1 player changeMartin Terrier
  • 70′1. FSV Mainz 05 · 3 player changesJae-sung Lee · Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Danny da Costa
  • 75′Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 2 player changesMalik Tillman · Nathan Tella
  • 77′1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1 player changeBenedict Hollerbach
  • 81′1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1 player changeLennard Maloney
  • 83′Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 1 player changeJonas Hofmann
  • 84′Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 1 player changeEzequiel Fernández

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

1. FSV Mainz 053-5-2
  1. Alexander SchwolowG
  2. Phillipp MweneD
  3. Fabio GruberD
  4. Stefan PoschD
  5. Anthony CaciD
  6. Kacper PotulskiD
  7. Kaishu SanoM
  8. Jae-sung LeeM
  9. Nadiem AmiriM
  10. Phillip TietzF
  11. Sheraldo BeckerF
Bayer 04 Leverkusen4-2-3-1
  1. Mark FlekkenG
  2. Facundo MedinaD
  3. Miguel GutiérrezD
  4. Jarell QuansahD
  5. Edmond TapsobaD
  6. Ezequiel FernándezM
  7. Aleix GarcíaM
  8. Ibrahim MazaM
  9. Afonso MoreiraF
  10. Patrik SchickF
  11. Moussa DiabyF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FSV Mainz 05
2Draws
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–4
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 055 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen5 matches
2.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 2.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 1.6 goals/match
2.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/52.24 xG/match
19.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 21.2 shots/match
5.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 6.4 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/5● 59.6%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 8 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required