PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

FC Augsburg 2–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Augsburg and FC Bayern München drew 2–2.

Shots
1230
Shots on target
510
Expected goals
2.375.04
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Augsburg and FC Bayern München drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (FC Augsburg – FC Bayern München): shots 12–30, shots on target 5–10, expected goals 2.37–5.04, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Augsburg · FC Bayern München23.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match23.4 shots/match15.8 shots/match
Shots against22.6 shots/match7 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

37.6%PossessionFC Augsburg · FC Bayern München● 70.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 32.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession37.6%70.4%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots30 shotsFC Augsburg 12 shots, FC Bayern München 30 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots10 shotsFC Augsburg 5 shots, FC Bayern München 10 shots
  • Expected goals2.37 xG5.04 xGFC Augsburg 2.37 xG, FC Bayern München 5.04 xG
  • Possession30%70%FC Augsburg 30%, FC Bayern München 70%
  • Corners5 corners9 cornersFC Augsburg 5 corners, FC Bayern München 9 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls6 foulsFC Augsburg 10 fouls, FC Bayern München 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards0 cardsFC Augsburg 3 cards, FC Bayern München 0 cards
  • Passes286 passes646 passesFC Augsburg 286 passes, FC Bayern München 646 passes
  • Pass accuracy75.2%90.1%FC Augsburg 75.2%, FC Bayern München 90.1%
  • Shots inside box10 shots17 shotsFC Augsburg 10 shots, FC Bayern München 17 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks9 blocksFC Augsburg 3 blocks, FC Bayern München 9 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves8 saves3 savesFC Augsburg 8 saves, FC Bayern München 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside4 offsidesFC Augsburg 1 offside, FC Bayern München 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 1′Robin FellhauerGoal · FC Augsburg
  2. 42′Chrislain MatsimaYellow card · FC Augsburg
  3. 43′Rodrigo RibeiroYellow card · FC Augsburg
  4. Half-time
  5. 55′Ismael SaibariGoal · FC Bayern München
  6. 62′Hennes BehrensYellow card · FC Augsburg
  7. 64′Rodrigo RibeiroGoal · FC Augsburg
  8. 80′Nathaniel BrownGoal · FC Bayern München
  9. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 62′FC Augsburg · 1 player changeAnton Kade
  • 67′FC Bayern München · 2 player changesSerge Gnabry · Nathaniel Brown
  • 75′FC Augsburg · 1 player changeMert Kömür
  • 82′FC Augsburg · 2 player changesJeffrey Gouweleeuw · Michael Gregoritsch
  • 87′FC Bayern München · 2 player changesTom Bischof · Lennart Karl

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

FC Augsburg3-4-2-1
  1. Finn DahmenG
  2. Calvin BrackelmannD
  3. Chrislain MatsimaD
  4. Jeffrey GouweleeuwD
  5. Hennes BehrensD
  6. Marius WolfD
  7. Han-Noah MassengoM
  8. Fabian RiederM
  9. Michael GregoritschF
  10. Robin FellhauerF
  11. Alexis Claude-MauriceF
FC Bayern München4-2-3-1
  1. Manuel NeuerG
  2. Dayot UpamecanoD
  3. Jonathan TahD
  4. Alphonso DaviesD
  5. Konrad LaimerD
  6. Joshua KimmichM
  7. Ismael SaibariM
  8. Aleksandar PavlovićM
  9. Harry KaneF
  10. Luis DíazF
  11. Michael OliseF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Augsburg
0Draws
4FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga1–2
FC Augsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–3
FC Augsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–3
FC Bayern München — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga3–0
FC Augsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Augsburg favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 12

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Augsburg5 matchesFC Bayern München5 matches
2.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 3.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 0.8 goals/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 3.45 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 23.4 shots/match
6.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 9 shots/match
37.6%Possession5/5● 70.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/5● 9.4 corners/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AugsburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headFC Augsburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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